科学与技术耦合效果评价——科技互补效应和成本效应分析

考虑到当前创新环境日益复杂化，科学与技术耦合系统已成为一个受系统内外因共同影响而发生演化的开放系统。在为耦合系统构建状态空间模型的基础上，通过求解该模型，刻画科学技术化强度和技术科学化强度，据此分析科学与技术互动产生的互补效应和成本效应，评价29个省份的科学与技术耦合效果，并测度地区科技发展所属耦合路径类型。研究表明，不同省份推进科学技术化进程和技术科学化进程的差异性显著；科学与技术耦合效果最佳并不能说明地区科技发展速度最快；绝大多数省份的科技耦合路径表现为科技中立路径，占比最小的路径为技术强势路径。基于不同省份的耦合情况差异，提出针对性建议。     

实现2035年发展目标的潜在增长率*

党的十九届五中全会提出了到2035年人均GDP达到中等发达国家水平的远景目标，因此测算和回答能否和如何如期实现该目标，对于我国实现第二个百年奋斗目标和坚持“四个自信”具有重要的意义。为此，本文根据跨越和陷入“中等收入陷阱”经济体的发展经验，对2021—2035年我国潜在增长率变化进行了测算。一是参照跨越和陷入“中等收入陷阱”经济体在我国相同发展阶段时各主要生产要素的变化，模拟设定我国未来各主要生产要素的增长率；二是通过运用附加人力资本的增长核算模型测算基准、乐观和悲观三种不同情境下未来我国经济的潜在增长率，验证我国2035年发展目标实现的可能性；三是依据主要要素对潜在增长率的贡献度，提出我国如期实现2035年发展目标的相应政策建议。     

银行业联合授信制度制约企业的非效率投资了吗*——基于沪深A股公司的分析

中国银保监会出台联合授信管理制度旨在抑制企业过度融资行为，提高资金使用效率。为检验该制度是否达到预期效果，采用2014—2018年沪深A股上市公司样本，运用非平衡面板数据回归实证考察联合授信机制对企业非效率投资的影响，发现联合授信对企业的非效率投资（包含投资不足和投资过度）呈现显著抑制效应，其中联合授信对投资过度的抑制效应最大。进一步研究发现，相较于国有、大规模、低负债、高盈利等异质属性的企业，联合授信对非国有、小规模、高负债、低盈利等属性企业的非效率投资（尤其是投资过度）抑制效应更为显著。     

The Benefit of Frequent Corporate Philanthropy

Applying behavioural economic theory, we argue that the frequency of philanthropic activity is important in determining corporate philanthropy's economic outcome. Using Chinese data from 2003 to 2016, we find that firms with more frequent philanthropic activities obtain more government subsidies than firms that only engage in one-off charitable donations. Firms with better corporate governance, such as higher management ownership and more independent directors, are more likely to adopt a strategy of frequent donation. Furthermore, firms are more likely to be frequent donors when management or local government officers have a long tenure. Our findings provide insight into the giving process and suggest that firms can maximize the benefit of corporate philanthropy if they strategically consider the donation frequency and donation amount simultaneously.     

利用大数据分析技术的智能化网络故障诊断系统

随着网络技术的快速发展以及各种新网络业务的出现，网络的规模日益扩大和复杂。同时，各种网络服务对于网络可靠性的要求也逐渐提高，这就对网络的维护提出了更高的要求。在这种情况下，传统的网络维护模式逐渐不能适应现代网络发展的需求。针对现代大型网络的故障诊断问题，利用大数据分析技术，设计并完成了一套整体的智能化故障诊断系统。在此系统中，针对不同的故障类型，利用能够获取到的数据类型，针对性地设计了相关的故障诊断模块和算法。系统整体基于开源的数据处理平台构建，具备良好的可扩展性。通过实际案例数据的验证，结果表明此系统具备良好的处理实际网络故障的能力，将大数据分析技术应用于网络故障诊断领域也具备较强的可行性。     

Impulse response function analysis of the impacts of land value-added tax policy on government performance

In this study, an epsilon-based network data envelopment analysis is employed to construct assessment mechanisms for government performance. Moreover, performance indicators of two dimensions of tax collection efficiency and financial effectiveness are measured. We propose a vector autoregression model in which all economic variables are regarded as dependent variables to address the disadvantages of traditional regression model. The conclusions are as follows: (a) measures of tax collection efficiency deteriorated, whereas those of financial effectiveness improved. (b) In an impulse response analysis of the model, an increase in government-published land values produced significantly increased tax collection efficiency.     

Place attachment,host–tourist interactions,and residents’ attitudes towards tourism development: the case of Boa Vista Island in Cape Verde

A clear understanding of residents’ attitudes towards tourism development and its determinants is a crucial pillar for designing tourism development strategies to promote sustainable development. The literature on the influence of host–tourist interactions and place attachment on residents’ attitudes towards tourism development in developing countries is still scarce. To extend knowledge in this field, this study aims at developing and testing a structural model to examine direct and indirect causal effects of place attachment, host–tourist interaction, and perceived positive and negative tourism impacts on the residents’ attitudes towards tourism development in an island tourism destination – Boa Vista Island in Cape Verde. Results suggest that the residents’ attitudes are positively affected by place attachment, host–tourist interaction, and perceived positive impacts; and negatively affected by perceived negative impacts. Host–tourist interaction emerges as the strongest (direct and indirect) determinant of the residents’ attitudes towards tourism development. Moreover, although both positive and negative perceptions of tourism impacts have significant impacts on the residents’ attitudes, the influence of the former is stronger than that of the latter. The paper ends with relevant theoretical and practical implications to promote positive residents’ attitudes towards tourism development in Boa Vista.     

基于马斯洛需求理论构建宜居城市指标体系及对北京的宜居评价

将马斯洛的需求层次理论与现代大城市生活结合起来,提高特大城市宜居水平应从5个层次需求的满足出发。为满足人的生理需求,要提高城市环境的健康性;满足人的安全需求,提高城市的安全性;满足人的社交需求,提高城市空间的开放性;满足人的尊重需求,提高城市社会的包容性;满足人的自我实现需求,提高城市的活力。构建了包括城市环境的健康性、城市的安全性、空间的开放性、社会的包容性和文化活力5个二级指标、20个三级指标的宜居城市指标体系。并以北京为例,将北京与世界城市纽约、伦敦、东京的宜居水平进行比较,发现北京仅相当于这三个城市的67%,北京在城市空间的开放性、社会的包容性、环境的健康性三个方面与世界城市存在很大差距。     

Volatility forecasting: long memory,regime switching and heteroscedasticity

In this article, we account for the first time for long memory, regime switching and the conditional time-varying volatility of volatility (heteroscedasticity) to model and forecast market volatility using the heterogeneous autoregressive model of realized volatility (HAR-RV) and its extensions. We present several interesting and notable findings. First, existing models exhibit significant nonlinearity and clustering, which provide empirical evidence on the benefit of introducing regime switching and heteroscedasticity. Second, out-of-sample results indicate that combining regime switching and heteroscedasticity can substantially improve predictive power from a statistical viewpoint. More specifically, our proposed models generally exhibit higher forecasting accuracy. Third, these results are widely consistent across a variety of robustness tests such as different forecasting windows, forecasting models, realized measures, and stock markets. Consequently, this study sheds new light on forecasting future volatility.     

Operating cash flow asymmetric timeliness in Australia

Operating cash flow (CFO) asymmetric timeliness occurs when CFO reflects bad news more quickly than good news. We examine the presence and determinants of CFO asymmetric timeliness in Australia, where substantial differences in reporting requirements of cash flow components, in characteristics of listed companies and in the degree of conservative financial reporting produce contrasting findings to those in the United States. We find supportive evidence for the novel ‘sticky cost behaviour’ explanation and also the product-pricing strategy, but not the life cycle hypothesis. These findings are useful for investors and analysts concerned with forecasting the future values of companies.